Archive for August, 2007
Right Under Your Nose
OVERSIMPLIFYING DECISION MODELS
Losing your keys is rough, especially when you are in a hurry. Where are some of the first places you look? Probably places that readily come to your memory: the kitchen table, the desk, etc. What you do not take into account are other factors that can complicate the situation. For instance, when [...]
Hi-Tech but out of Luck
COMPARING SKILL AND PRODUCT SELECTION
You have just been accepted to a very prestigious graduate school, first of all, congratulations! Now you need some tools; your basic notebooks, pens, and of course a computer. Choosing a computer is a big decision. This is a top ten grad school, you want to make sure you [...]
Touch-ups
EVALUATING CONTRIBUTIONS OF PAST RESEARCHERS AND THEORIES
In the past, several researchers in the judgment and decision making field have reviewed and updated past decision analysis theories; one of these revisions comes from a group of researchers who have titled their article: Risk-based Decision [...]
Cliffhanger
COMPONENTS OF RISKY DECISION MAKING
If all of your friends jumped off a bridge, would you jump too? That is quite a risky decision to make, but when you analyze your options before rushing to make your choice, the correct decision may surprise [...]
Making the Grade
FEAR OF FAILURE COSTING GOOD DECISION MAKING SKILLS
Failure. It’s a harsh and dominating word that is very quick to take over your conscience after a bad decision has been made. People usually blame failure on bad decision making, but isn’t [...]
Cleaning up the Attic
SIMPLE PRINCIPLES TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS
Imagine your mind as a vacuum, you can pick the color and brand later, this is important. Now, you only have one bag inside of you to get all of the dirt and crumbs and whatever else might be living [...]
Doctoring Decisions
USING ACCURACY TO HELP UNCERTAIN DECISION MAKING
You have a cough. Don’t worry, you will be fine. Now, say you visit Doctor number one for your cough and he says you have a cold. You go to doctor number two and [...]
Chance of Showers and Decisions
ANALYZING STRATEGIES OF UNCERTAIN DECISION MAKING
Today we have a 40% chance of Bob making the wrong decision on his big case today, and a partly cloudy prediction of what he’s going to have for dinner.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could [...]
Luck be a Lady
INFLUENCES THAT AFFECT OUR DECISIONS ABOUT UNCERTAINTY
What makes up our behavior? How do you fit in with one group of people and not the other? In Robyn Dawes book Rational Choices in an Uncertain World, he points out an important study titled “Measuring Utility of Money through Decisions” by C.H. Coombs and S.S. [...]
Who Knows
THE NECESSITY OF UNCERTAINTY
When evaluating uncertainty I often think of an egg toss. What are the chances of throwing the egg without the other person dropping or breaking it? Humans can be tricked into believing they can control uncertain events, by remembering recent successes or by the persuasion of others. However, recent [...]
