A Model Decision

Posted on July 25, 2007. Filed under: Uncategorized |

fork-in-road.jpg USING MODELS TO MAKE DECISIONS EASIER
Even if you are a procrastinating, messy, and unorganized person you still use models to take short cuts. Whether you are driving along and see a side road, or you are write down a list to make it through the grocery store faster; everyone makes use of heuristics. Decision making is not any different. An article by Sloman and Hagmayer titled: The causal psycho-logic of choice states that “good decision making generally depends on how actions are causally related to outcomes.” (p.407).

By employing a simple model to analyze how possible actions can affect outcomes, we are better able to sort out which choice to make. Sloman and Hagmayer call this “causal reasoning”, and then use the Bayes nets model to illustrate:

online-flow-chart-2.jpg When we use these three main phases of this model: constructing a causal model (goals), implement choice (consequences), and integrate values (outcomes), we are able to make the best decision possible.

Text: Sloman, Steven and Hagmayer, York, The Causal Psych-logic of Choice, Brown University, RI. 2006.

Photo Credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/marc50/153894176/

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